The first order from a new market is the most over-analysed and under-structured decision in distribution. Over-analysed because everyone tries to forecast demand that has never been measured; under-structured because the order is treated as a purchase rather than as an experiment. A first order is a test. Its job is to produce sell-through data, and everything about how it is built should serve that.
Size it for learning, not for a forecast
The temptation is to order to a sales projection. The projection, at this stage, is a guess dressed as a plan. An order sized to it becomes an inventory problem the moment the guess is wrong, and first guesses about new markets are usually wrong somewhere.
The right size is defined by two limits: large enough that each line generates real sell-through data — enough to see what moves, where and at what price — and small enough that being wrong on a line has no serious consequence. That range is narrower than most distributors expect, and it is almost always smaller than the projection.
Anchor and breadth
A mixed range works best with two kinds of line playing two roles.
The anchor is our own production: string-and-tag tea bags and blends, dried fruit crisps, private-label packing, natural soap, rose water, essential oils and botanical extracts. On the tea, fruit and packing lines we set the specification and hold the capacity ourselves, so a reorder is a quantity and a date; natural soap is made with our specialist production partner under a quality framework we maintain. They make the order reliable.
The breadth is sourced lines: honey, tahini and confectionery, spices, hazelnuts and pistachios, olive oil and table olives, tomato and pepper paste, pulses and beverage powders. On these we work with verified producers and do not own the plants behind them; their constraints — harvest cycle, export quota, processing campaign — travel with them. They make the range interesting, and they should be sized knowing that a reorder may depend on a season rather than a warehouse.
Building a first order that is all breadth and no anchor is how distributors end up with a fascinating range they cannot reliably restock.